Only two things are infinite, the
universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the former.
- Albert
Einstein
Countdown to doomsday
Down
the ages, one of the favourite pastimes of soothsayers, prophets, oracles, astrologers,
ufologists, numerologists and an assortment of similar scaremongers and
pseudoscientists has been to make outrageous ‘predictions’ of doomsday
scenarios for the earth and watch the chaos created in the minds of the
gullible from the sidelines. They
continue to stay on the sidelines if nothing of any consequence happens, as
indeed is the case almost always, and jump into the fray with an ‘I told you
so’ if anything even remotely resembling their predictions actually
happens. Whatever be the eventual
outcome, the more enterprising of these charlatans would have made a fortune
through their books, writings, ‘astrological advice’, special religious
ceremonies in appeasement of the ‘angry’ gods, sales of ‘survival kits’,
sponsored and paid media events, etc., and the gullible would have been taken
for a ride, swallowing the bait hook, line and sinker.
The
most bizarre and outrageous of the doomsday predictions has been reserved for
this year (2012) in general and specifically for 21st December 2012 in
particular. Why this particular date? Primarily because it is the day of the winter
solstice (as viewed from the northern hemisphere) when the Sun is at its
southernmost point from the equator; for this reason it is treated as rather
special in astronomical terms and highly significant in astrological reckoning. So far, nothing of any cognizable
significance has happened in the year per
se, so all the attention is now focused on the specific doomsday date just
a week away from now. While most people
are unconcerned with and indeed indifferent to whatever may or may not happen,
large segments of the population everywhere in the world are anxious,
apprehensive and at the very least nervous about what the day may unfold and
some are even contemplating ‘precautions’ like hiding themselves in safe
locations as one might do during an eclipse or, much less likely, at the time
of an air raid. In India, these
precautions are taking the more traditional form of appeasing the gods with some
of the choicest and most expensive offerings to the accompaniment of special
prayers and poojas in temples. The market forces are at work and the managers,
owners and priests of the temples are set to make a huge killing on that day,
with the service charges and rates shooting up like airfares during Diwali and
Christmas holidays. Like air tickets,
there are already a lot of advance bookings.
The Doomsday ‘predictions’
Unlike
ordinary times, the doomsayers this time have a number of what they consider
‘surefire’ alternatives to back on to ensure the end of the world no later than
this year. Here are a few of the more ‘reliable’
ones with brief descriptions of how they are supposed to happen and a very
reassuring expert assessment of how they cannot happen the way they are
envisaged. Before I delve into these I
strongly recommend the reader to go through an excellent website specifically
dedicated to discussing these ‘manufactured fantasies’ and related issues for
what they really are: http://www.2012hoax.org/. Equally
illuminating is the article titled “2012 and Counting” by NASA scientist Dr David
Morrison in which he answers the ‘Top 20 Questions about 2012’. It is available at: http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/2012-and-counting/.
The Mayan Myth
The
Mayans of South America is one of the better known ancient civilizations, now
long extinct, with some notable achievements in Astronomy and calendar making
to add weight to their intellectual prowess.
The chief 2012 doomsday myth concerns how their longstanding calendar
calligraphy ends abruptly this year end.
A whole cottage industry has grown around asserting that the end of the
Mayan calendar forebodes the end of the world for, as the argument goes, they
would otherwise have continued with their calendar making! This is like claiming that a packaged medical
product, marked with an expiry date that says ‘Use before…’, suddenly disappears
(along with the container) after the expiry date! Here is a doomsayer with precisely such an
implication when he merely refers to a ‘suggestion…that
Armageddon would overtake the degenerate peoples of the world and all creation
on the final day of the thirteenth [baktun].
Thus…our present universe…[would] be annihilated on December 23, 2012,
when the Great Cycle of the Long Count reaches completion’. To
quote an expert on this issue, “Contrary
to popular understanding, the ancient Meso-Americans, be they Maya or any other
group, left no oral or written “prophecy” record about what would or could
happen on or about the year 2012 other than a great age of 5125 years would end
and another commence.” But who would
be interested in these prosaic facts in the face of such cataclysmic claims to
both dazzle and frighten the vast majority of believers in apocalyptic
stories?
Pralaya, the Great
Deluge
The
concept of Pralaya (The 2012 event if
it ever happens should qualify as a Mahapralaya), loosely translated as ‘the great deluge’,
essentially describes the terminal phase of the destruction of the Universe
that is supposed to have taken place in the past and believed to take place in
future according to Hindu mythology. It
is supposed to happen repetitively with a (very long) periodicity, interspersed
with the (re)creation of the universe in a different garb. This is often grotesquely (mis)interpreted as
a gigantic volume of water rising up to great heights, rushing in ferociously, drowning
out the entire earth, and making it extinct.
People who subscribe to such beliefs never ask themselves the question
as to how this is physically possible when the volume of water in the seas is
only a tiny fraction of the overall volume of the earth. As so often happens, this is the result of a
totally unwarranted literal interpretation of any mythological event or episode. Indeed it would be a great disservice to
subject these wonderfully evocative works of mythology and literature to drab literal
interpretations.
Many
people argue that the great tsunami
that caused such devastating destruction on 26th December 2004 in many parts of
Asia, including large tracts of southern coastal India, is the harbinger of a
much bigger one to come. In any case, it
would be as unpredictable as the last one and certainly cannot cause the end of
the world! Even the latest Fukushima earthquake-cum-tsunami
disaster of last year doesn’t fit the bill, however terrible it was to the
people of Japan.
Planetary Alignments
While
the Mayan calendar is a one-off phenomenon, the so called ‘planetary
alignments’ have come in handy quite frequently for the doomsayers, especially
astrologers. The last two such
‘alignments’ that were supposed to produce cataclysmic effects on the earth
were in 1987 and 2000 respectively, but fizzled out like exploding crackers on
a rainy night during Diwali fireworks.
The term alignment itself is a total misnomer when applied to a planetary
system; anybody can conveniently mean anything by this. In 2012, there is no planetary alignment of
any significance fitting any description whatever.
One
oft quoted claim is; ‘…during this time
the two biggest planets in our solar system, Saturn and Jupiter, will be in
line with each other. The gravitational
effects of the two planets on the Sun will cause it to wobble during it’s pole
shift.’ This is such utter nonsense
that any schoolboy should see through it.
For one thing, any two objects can
be in line with each other, Saturn and Jupiter cannot cause any wobble on the
Sun any time in any configuration and, lastly, the Sun doesn’t even have
clearly definable poles like a planet, let alone be subject to ‘pole shifts’. Another implication that only certain specific
planetary alignments cause cataclysmic earthquakes is equally absurd.
Magnetic Pole Shift
The
fact that complex geophysical processes in the interior of the earth do give
rise to a reversal of the (north and south) magnetic poles of the earth is well
documented and satisfactorily explained, but to say that this causes
catastrophic consequences to the earth is absurd in the extreme. Such a pole shift takes thousands of years to take place and cannot happen within a matter
of days or months as envisaged by the doomsayers.
Rotational Pole Shift
An
even more absurd suggestion is that the geographical poles of the earth shift
substantially or even undergo a reversal, amounting to a corresponding change
in the axis of rotation of the earth, causing cataclysmic changes to the
planet. Apart from the question of why
this should happen, what is overlooked is the gargantuan amounts of external energy
required to achieve anything like this and the source of this energy.
Galactic Alignment
There
are different variants of the ‘galactic alignment’ proposition one of which is
that the solar system passes through the galactic plane this month (In actual
fact it is moving away from, not towards, the galactic plane and the next
crossing is due in about 30 million
years from now; also, the last such ‘alignment’ was about 3 million years ago – both long spans of
time even by astronomical standards!).
All these are equally ridiculous and meaningless in astronomical terms
and merely represent, at best, an inconsistent use or deliberate misuse of high
sounding astronomical terminology. The
distances involved are so immensely greater than interplanetary distances that no
astrophysical processes of any kind can have any impact on earth which is but
one insignificant speck in the vast, incredibly empty, interstellar space even
if this space is only intra galactic.
Natural Disasters
Natural
and generally unpredictable disasters like earthquakes,
typhoons/tornados/cyclones, and the more infrequent tsunamis, etc., cannot
possibly spell the end of the world even
if they all occur simultaneously at their destructive worst. Despite the large scale localized disaster
they often lead to, they are little more than pinpricks to the earth as a
whole. However, if anyone is caught in
an event like this on the projected doomsday, it may certainly spell the end of
the world for him, but it would be a far cry from being the end of the world
for humanity as a whole.
Black Hole
Black
holes in space, be they ‘ordinary’ ones or supermassive galactic nuclei, are
among the most bizarre objects known to astrophysics. Gravitationally they are so strong that they
can attract and swallow up any object that gets close to it. No wonder some of the doomsday scenarios are
associated with them. Their proponents
envisage collisions of black holes in and around 2012 resulting in the
‘ejection of massive gravity radiation creating imbalance in our entire
galaxy…’ with the hapless earth naturally swallowed up in the process! As to why these black holes should collide with
each other is anybody’s guess.
Another
black hole scary scene was conceived around the Large Hadron Collider (LHC),
the gargantuan particle collider near Geneva in Europe which was prominently in
the news earlier this year for the discovery of the famous Higgs boson [See my
earlier blog post: 52) The Exasperating God Particle – Missing
piece in a cosmic jigsaw puzzle (Jul 12)]. The rumor mills
ground up a doomsday scenario in which the LHC would go berserk and produce a
mini or micro black hole that would swallow up the entire earth! Of course the LHC is incapable of anything so
fanciful.
Colliding Extraterrestrial Bodies
The
doomsayers need nothing as exotic as black holes to finish off the earth. More mundane things like colliding
extraterrestrial objects should suffice.
A host of such objects in near-earth space are supposed to be on course
to collide with the earth and any one of them should be able to complete the
job! Chief among them is the mythical ‘twelfth
planet Nibiru’ that has a long
history and hallowed presence on the doomsday stage. So is the so called planet X. At the very least, a stray asteroid or comet
is considered sufficient for the job.
Needless to say, they exist only in the minds of dedicated hoaxers with a
fertile imagination, capable of capturing the attention of the gullible who are
prepared to believe anything but the hard truth that no extraterrestrial object
heading towards the earth, however elusive, can go undetected years or even
decades in advance with the modern tools and techniques of astronomy.
Supernova
Yet
another disaster scenario is that the earth will be wiped out by a supernova
suddenly erupting nearby. The ‘ripe’
candidate for such an event is the red supergiant star Betelgeuse that is about
640 light years from the earth in the Orion constellation. Before this happens we could expect to see
the appearance of a ‘second Sun’ in the sky, a phenomenon that is so popular
with doomsday hoaxers that it has now become something of an annual event. It ignores the astrophysical fact that there
is no reliable way of predicting how red giant stars behave at the end of their
life cycles. Betelgeuse poses no
conceivable threat to humanity now or indeed within the next million years.
2012 the Movie
Hollywood
has always had a fascination for sci-fi disaster movies where the imagination
runs riot and rationality of any kind is the worst casualty. Much of the 2012 doomsday myth has been
fuelled by one such movie, the 2009 production simply titled ‘2012’, perhaps
distinguished for its high technical quality, but little else. It was successful in stirring up a frenzy of
fear among the viewers that has continued to this day. Only the end of the world next week or the
end of calendar year 2012 should bring any relief from its pernicious
influence.
Real-world Consequences
The
doomsday predictions are not just harmless pranks by any means and have already
had some grave real-world consequences. People
who take these seriously (there are lots of people who do so all over the
world) have been leading frightened and tortured lives, often rationalizing
that it is better to end their own lives before the earth comes to its
predicted end. Indeed there have been numerous
instances of people, especially young and innocent children, actually carrying
this out.
I
have been approached on numerous occasions over the last 2-3 years (ever since
the disaster movie ‘2012’ made a splash) by people of all strata in society asking
me what I had to say about these dire doomsday warnings. Most of them have not been convinced by my
dismissive attitude to their apprehensions.
They seek a scientifically reasoned response from me and when I say that
there is little or no science behind any of the claims they feel let down. However, I have had better success with groups
of students whenever I have addressed them on these issues.
Media Madness
As
usual, both the printed and electronic media have played their part in
spreading and perpetuating the irrational, the pseudoscientific and the grossly
unscientific and cashed in heavily on the present doomsday myth. A routine Google search of the internet will
throw up huge amounts of supportive information on every nonsensical claim that
is doing the rounds. Most TV channels
and their presenters not only report them dutifully without batting an eyelid,
but also hold lengthy discussion sessions with assorted ‘experts’, including
the ubiquitous and indispensable astrologer.
Every doomsday scenario is dissected threadbare and discussed as seriously
as the latest political crisis or economic scam in the country. Often they do let sane voices speak up, but somewhat
patronizingly and only to project the ‘other’ side of the story.
The
role of the once respected History (TV) Channel is particularly
disturbing. Recently it has degenerated
and “become a place where various doomsday scenarios are presented, looking
like documentaries, and giving the impression that the science behind these
shows is well-accepted. In reality these
shows are apparently nothing more than vehicles for book sales for the various
authors and ‘independent researchers’ that the History Channel has chosen as
their Prophets of Doom.”
Weird Beliefs
Why do people believe in such outrageously nonsensical
doomsday scenarios even to the point of being skeptical about perfectly
rational arguments and scientific evidence to the contrary? It is a rather complex question requiring a
deep psychological study of human behavior.
To some extent the answer can be found in “Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other
Confusions of Our Time”, a famous
book by Michael Shermer, who is the founding publisher and editor-in-chief of Skeptic
magazine (see: www.skeptic.com) and the director
of The Skeptics Society. It is essentially a survey of a range of
irrational human behaviors, with an analysis of their empirical and logical
flaws. It delves into the difference
between science and pseudo-science supported by numerous examples from everyday
life. The present doomsday scare represents
an excellent example.
Epilogue
It
must be admitted that the doomsday phenomenon is more of a western malady, with
people in countries like India showing a surprising degree of intellectual
maturity. In recent months, some
religious leaders in India have started discounting the widely publicized
doomsday claims and trying to allay popular fears. Even astrologers have started singing a more
restrained tune. Faced with the prospect
of yet another fiasco with their public utterances, they are distancing
themselves from the Mayan calendar, truthfully claiming that it is not in
consonance with their own. They are now
pushing themselves into the background, content with providing ‘private
consultations’ at a vastly expanded scale to disturbed clients who have started
flocking to them in rapidly increasing numbers.
It looks like they will have their cake and eat it too. It should be a lot easier to secure an
appointment with a noted brain specialist than with one of these worthies.
All
said and done, December 21 may still not see the kind of mass hysteria that
many rationalists and law-and-order authorities fear.
On
that fateful day exactly a week from now, I am due to visit an educational
institution not far from Kanyakumari, the southernmost tip of the subcontinent
that was ravaged during the tsunami of 26th December 2004. I have been warned not to go too close to the
sea that day lest I be washed away by a much more devastating tsunami, indeed a
pralaya, which someone I know very
well thinks is bound to happen that day!
I shall certainly heed the warning if only because I won’t have the time
to go near the sea that day.
Postscript
I
have just received reliable information that, due to unavoidable reasons, the End of the World has been postponed! The revised date is yet to be announced!
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